Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim made headlines with a candid admission following his team’s 2-0 defeat to Newcastle United at Old Trafford. The result leaves the Red Devils in 14th place, just seven points clear of the relegation zone. Speaking to BBC Sport, Amorim acknowledged the possibility of a relegation battle, saying, “We have to be honest with our supporters.”
It has been 50 years since United last dropped out of England’s top division, at the end of the 1973-74 season. With the modern Premier League shaped by financial dominance at the summit, the prospect of Manchester United slipping into the Championship raises questions about how close the club is to the edge.
United’s current campaign has been a turbulent one. Their loss to Newcastle marked their third consecutive Premier League defeat and their fifth in six league outings. Sitting 14th in the standings, they are closer to the relegation zone than to a European qualification spot.
The team’s position is its lowest at this stage of the season since 1989, a year in which they eventually finished 13th and salvaged some pride with an FA Cup win under Sir Alex Ferguson. Since Amorim’s appointment in November, United have taken only seven points from eight league matches, managing just two wins and a draw while losing five.
December proved to be historically bad for the club, with six defeats across all competitions, equaling a record not seen since 1962. Defensively, United conceded 18 goals in the month, their worst tally since March 1964. Their three straight home league losses are the first since 1979, while their three consecutive Premier League defeats in a single season mirror a dismal run last experienced under Louis van Gaal in December 2015.
Historically, 35-38 points have been sufficient to avoid relegation in the Premier League’s 38-game seasons. With 22 points from 19 matches, United’s current trajectory suggests they would finish on 44 points if they maintain their average of 1.15 points per game. However, under Amorim, the points-per-game rate has dropped to 0.88, which would leave them with a precarious total of 39 points.
While this is above the threshold to stay up, it is worth noting that West Ham went down in 2002-03 with 42 points, the highest-ever tally for a relegated side in the Premier League era.
Despite the alarming numbers, data analysts at Opta predict that Manchester United’s chances of relegation are minimal. Based on thousands of simulations, United have just a 0.1% probability of finishing 18th and no realistic chance of ending in the bottom two. In fact, their most likely outcome is a mid-table finish, with a 15.1% chance of ending 12th and projections suggesting a final tally of around 50 points.
While relegation seems highly improbable, the struggles under Ruben Amorim highlight just how far Manchester United have fallen from their lofty standards. Fans hoping for a resurgence will look for signs of improvement in the second half of the season.
